Will American Pharoah Win the Triple Crown?

[J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”)]

An open question for any and all to answer! Do you think American Pharoah has what it takes to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978?

[kevin bayley]

He needs to set the pace in the next two legs to get the job done, Keeler. Get in a rhythm, click off :12’s and he has a solid chance. But I must ask, when has a California-based horse EVER run well in the Belmont? Off the top of my head I would say maybe Sunday Break in 2002 (3rd place). I really want AP to win the Triple Crown – not as bad as I wanted Empire Maker to achieve it – but the Storm Cat on the bottom side is always a concern for me regarding classic distances. Sorry, I’m all over the place here. He has the talent, the running style, all he needs is a little racing luck. In the end, I say he falls short, and we wait yet another year for the chance at the Triple. Thanks for letting me voice my opinion, and have a great weekend Keeler!

[J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”)]

Hi Kevin! I agree, American Pharoah’s best chance is to probably be more aggressive in the Preakness and Belmont — early speed tends to dominate both races, and is an often-overlooked weapon in the Belmont Stakes. But indeed, you’ve got a great point that California-based 3yos haven’t had much luck in the Belmont Stakes recently. Off the top of my head, I believe Paynter is the first and last California-based 3yo to run well in the Belmont since Sunday Break, and he could only finish second to the East Coast-based Union Rags during a year in which the California 3yos were generally superior to the eastern colts. Thanks for sharing your thoughts, and you have a great weekend as well!

[Daniel Johnson]

After winning on the fast Churchill Downs track, and then in the slop of the Great Preakness Rainstorm, I can’t help wondering what the track conditions will be on Belmont Day, and which would be better for American Pharoah. Do we hope for fast or wet? Or will it not matter to him?

[J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”)]

Good question, Daniel! I think the track conditions probably won’t make much a difference to American Pharoah, but if the track comes up wet, it might compromise some of his key rivals and make winning the Belmont an easier task in that respect.

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