Keep Quiet: A Live Longshot in the Juvenile Turf?

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As usual, the $1,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) is shaping up to be an exciting and competitive race. Horses like Oscar Performance and Good Samaritan have stamped themselves as leading contenders from the United States, while the European contingent will surely be strong and could include the Group 1-placed Lancaster Bomber from the barn of Aidan O’Brien.

One colt that has been flying a bit under the radar is Keep Quiet, a son of Elusive City owned by Gary Barber and trained by Mark Casse. He gave no hints of being a potential star in the making when finishing last in his debut on May 27th at Belmont Park, and a fifth-place finish on July 1st at Belmont was also uninspiring.

But when the Saratoga meet rolled around and Keep Quiet got a chance to stretch out in distance, he showed explosive improvement. Tackling an 8.5-furlong maiden special weight on the inner turf course, Keep Quiet went straight to the lead, carved out fractions of :24.08, :49.70, and 1:14.06, then kicked clear powerfully to win by 5 1/4 lengths while running his fourth quarter-mile in :23.37 and his final sixteenth in :05.88.

All of a sudden, Keep Quiet was starting to look like something special.

Less than four weeks later, he tackled graded stakes company in the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) over the same course and distance as his maiden win. After rating just off the pace while racing wide, Keep Quiet couldn’t quite match the sharp acceleration of the favored Todd Pletcher runner Made You Look, but Keep Quiet was beaten just two lengths while finishing second in another solid run.

With that effort under his belt, Keep Quiet shipped to Keeneland to contest the Bourbon Stakes (gr. III), a race in which he showed tremendous determination in the homestretch. After settling in third once again–this time while saving ground–Keep Quiet battled his way to the lead in the homestretch and repulsed multiple challenges to draw clear and win by 1 1/4 lengths.

Since that race, Keep Quiet has caught eyes during morning training. On October 22nd, he worked a half-mile in company with the sensational five-year-old mare Tepin, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. I), Queen Anne Stakes (Eng-I), and Woodbine Mile (gr. I). Tepin is a very good workhorse, yet Keep Quiet held his own against her and recorded the same time (:48.40 with a :23 flat final quarter-mile) as the champion mare, even staying with her on the gallop-out through five furlongs in 1:01 flat.

Tepin (outside) and Keep Quiet work 1/2 in 48 2/5 @ChurchillDowns for @BreedersCup races @santaanitapark pic.twitter.com/p7fcLlxlQ7

— Jennie Rees (@TracksideJennie) October 22, 2016

From all appearances, Keep Quiet is a very talented colt that is improving steadily and training toward a very big effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Time will tell if he can hold his own against the Europeans, or Oscar Performance and Good Samaritan, but he’s definitely one to consider for the multi-race wagers. He could offer decent odds compared to his better-known rivals, and judging from his races and solid workout with Tepin, Keep Quiet could be a major overlay worthy of a win bet.

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