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During the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby, it is a requirement that everyone must have a pick to win the race. Even people who don’t normally handicap horse races are required to pick a horse and hope for the best, because it’s part of the excitement and part of the fun.
That’s why every year, my hat feels inclined to voice its opinion on which horse will win the Kentucky Derby.
Thankfully, my own record at handicapping the Derby is better than that of my hat, which has been producing Derby selections since 2010. After picking two straight 18th-place finishers in a row (Line of David and Watch Me Go), my hat improved its performance by picking 2012 Derby fourth-place finisher Went the Day Well, but followed up with Charming Kitten (9th in 2013), Wildcat Red (18th in 2014), and Frammento (11th in 2015).
But my hat, being an incurable optimist, is ready to give the 2016 Kentucky Derby a try. Who knows–perhaps this is the year that my hat will finally be right! So after I wrote out the names of every Derby contender on twenty pieces of paper, my hat mixed them up and dropped them out in what it believes to be the correct order of finish.
From last to first, here they are:
20th: Danzing Candy
Either my hat is confusing post positions with finishing positions, or else it thinks that the wide draw will prove to be Danzing Candy’s undoing.
19th: Majesto
The Florida Derby runner-up required five starts to break his maiden–perhaps my hat thinks the Majesto’s strong showing was a fluke?
18th: Tom’s Ready
Apparently, my hat is not impressed with the recent Derby record of trainer Dallas Stewart.
17th: Nyquist
Wow–this is a surprise! My hat must not care for the form of the Florida Derby runners.
16th: Oscar Nominated
My hat’s best Derby pick came with the 2012 Spiral Stakes winner, but it won’t be playing the Spiral winner this year.
15th: Lani
The UAE Derby winner has been a handful during training at Churchill Downs–perhaps my hat is worried that Lani will fail to run his best race?
14th: Trojan Nation
Most people don’t think that Trojan Nation will contend in the Derby since he has never won a race, but my hat likes him better than three major prep race winners.
13th: Exaggerator
Wow, my hat doesn’t think the two favorites will finish in the top ten! It must be shooting for an epic superfecta.
12th: Shagaf
Nothing too surprising here–Shagaf is the co-11th choice on the morning line, and my hat is picking him to run 12th.
11th: Suddenbreakingnews
Suddenbreakingnews is another of the co-11th choices on the morning line, so my hat doesn’t seem to have put much thought into handicapping these finishing positions…
10th: Creator
…Or else it was just unimpressed by the top two finishers from the Arkansas Derby.
9th: Outwork
Since my hat likes Trojan Nation better than most, it seems to also likes Outwork reasonably well, despite the slow closing fractions in the Wood Memorial.
8th: Mor Spirit
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby four times, including last year with American Pharoah, but my hat doesn’t think Mor Spirit will become Baffert’s fifth winner.
7th: Destin
Destin looks like one of the fastest horses in the race on paper, but my hat must be concerned about the eight-week layoff since the Tampa Bay Derby.
6th: Mo Tom
After troubled trips in the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby, my hat feels that Mo Tom will finally get a good trip and rally for a respectable finish…
5th: Gun Runner
…But still fall short of catching his two-time conqueror Gun Runner. And now (drumroll, please), it is time for my hat’s “can’t-miss” superfecta!
4th: Whitmore
Whitmore hasn’t had much luck in his last three starts, but has run well each time while showing flashes of major talent. My hat is clearly hoping for impressive odds in the superfecta.
3rd: My Man Sam
This lightly-raced colt produced a big rally to finish second in the Blue Grass Stakes–my hat must think that the extra furlong will help his chances.
2nd: Mohaymen
My hat doesn’t like the chances of Nyquist and Majesto, but is confident that Mohaymen will rebound in a big way off his fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby. Perhaps my hat has been watching Mohaymen’s energetic workouts at Churchill Downs?
1st: Brody’s Cause
After picking longshots every year, my hat has finally chosen a favorite! Clearly, my hat was impressed with the Blue Grass Stakes and feels the top two finishers from that race will both finish in the Derby trifecta. Perhaps my hat is also swayed by Dale Romans strong record in the Derby–his runners hit the board in three straight years from 2010 through 2012.
Will the hat hit the superfecta? Perhaps not. Has the hat finally picked a Derby horse that will outrun mine? We shall see!
