Today at 11:30 a.m. EDT, nine three-year-old fillies will enter the starting gate to contest the prestigious Investec Oaks (Eng-I) at Epsom, one of the oldest and most legendary races in the world. At twelve furlongs on turf over a challenging course, the Oaks has not been kind to favorites in recent years, and last year, Qualify won the race at odds of 71-1 in the U.S. pool.
This year’s Oaks features a standout favorite in Minding, who figures to be around even-money or so in the U.S. pool. The daughter of Galileo out of Lillie Langtry has finished first or second in all seven of her races to date, including a three-race group I win streak that saw her claim impressive wins in the Moyglare Stud Stakes (Ire-I), Fillies’ Mile (Eng-I), and 1,000 Guineas (Eng-I).
But despite her credentials, I think Minding could be vulnerable to an upset. Last time out, in the Irish 1,000 Guineas (Ire-I), she was beaten a head by Jet Setting in a shocking upset over a course labeled “soft,” and while she did hit her head on the starting gate that day, it’s possible that she didn’t particularly care for the soft turf course.
Furthermore, Minding has never run beyond a mile and will be stretching out to 1 1/2 miles over a course labeled “good to soft,” which will be a major test of her stamina. Perhaps she’ll handle the extra distance just fine, but even her trainer Aidan O’Brien has voiced concerns about the added distance, so as a heavy favorite, I think it’s worth playing against Minding and looking for an upset winner.
Two horses that have caught my eye are Somehow and Harlequeen. Somehow–who, like Minding, is trained by Aidan O’Brien–has won two straight races at 1 1/4 miles or longer, winning a ten-furlong maiden race at Leopardstown over a “heavy” course before claiming a half-length victory in the 11.5-furlong Cheshire Oaks at Chester. The distance and course conditions shouldn’t be an issue at all for this daughter of Fastnet Rock, who will have Seamie Heffernan in the saddle. Heffernan teamed up with O’Brien to win the 2012 Investec Oaks aboard Was, and all told, they’ve won 20 group I races together. There’s a good chance that Somehow will get overlooked in the U.S. pool, as she’s 10-1 on the morning line, and at that price, I think she’s worth a play.
As for Harlequeen, she won her debut going a mile at Goodwood last year by 4 1/2 lengths, and while she hasn’t won in two starts this season, her efforts have been solid. On April 14th, she was second in the ten-furlong Tattersalls Millions 3yo Trophy, finishing well over a course labeled “good to soft” to be beaten just 1 1/4 lengths. Then, on May 11th, she took a shot in the 10.5-furlong Musidora Stakes (Eng-III) at York, and while she was never a threat to runaway winner So Mi Dar, Harlequeen did run well to finish fourth, beaten two heads for second.
Time will tell if Harlequeen can handle the extra distance of the Oaks–her sire is the miler Canford Cliffs–but she has given the impression of a filly that won’t mind twelve furlongs, and the course conditions should be to her liking. I won’t be underestimating her, and while she’s 15-1 on the U.S. morning line, I think there’s a good chance that she goes off at considerably higher than that.
Seventh Heaven and Architecture, separated by a neck when finishing 1-2 in the 11.5-furlong Oaks Trial Fillies’ Stakes at Lingfield, also warrant consideration. Seventh Heaven, trained by Aidan O’Brien, has decent tactical speed and could be forwardly placed early on, while Architecture is lightly-raced but proven over soft ground. The top jockey Frankie Dettori will have the mount on Architecture while Colm O’Donoghue will be aboard Seventh Heaven, reuniting the Donoghue/O’Brien team that won the 2015 Oaks with Qualify.
Skiffle could wind up as the second choice off a solid win in the ten-furlong Veolia Height of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood, but she’s taking a very big step up in class and is unproven on softer going, which could make her vulnerable at a fairly short price. Turret Rocks, another that should be well-bet, is intriguing off her runner-up effort to the talented Ballydoyle over a yielding course in the Prix Marcel Boussac (Fr-I) last October, but like Minding, Turret Rocks has never run farther than a mile and is taking a big step up in distance. I’m not really concerned about Turret Rocks ability to handle the distance–she’s strongly bred, being by Fastnet Rock out of a Galileo mare–but she was tiring at the end of her 2016 debut in the QIPCO 1,000 Guineas (Eng-I) and will need to take a step forward in her second start of the season.
Rounding out the field are Diamonds Pour Moi, a solid third behind Somehow in the Cheshire Oaks, and Australian Queen, a distant fifth in the Musidora Stakes last time out. Diamonds Pour Moi could be one to watch given that she’s only run twice and will be making her second start of the season in the Oaks; with so little race experience, she could be eligible to take a step forward and get involved for a good finish.
Good luck to all, and enjoy the race!
