Keeneland Photo
In years past, it was common to hear of “dual qualifiers” when handicapping the Kentucky Derby. Dual qualifiers are horses that have a Dosage Index (an analysis of pedigree that attempts to measure speed and stamina) of 4.00 or less and were also ranked within 10 pounds of the leader on the year’s Experimental Free Handicap, which ranks the leading two-year-olds of the previous year and gives each a weight assignment. Although dual qualifiers have not had much success in recent Kentucky Derbies–in fact, the last five Kentucky Derby winners failed to meet one or both of the criteria–it’s always an enjoyable task to delve into the data and see which Derby contenders meet the dual qualifier standard.
This year, it looks like five Derby starters will make the cut. The co-leaders of the 2016 Experimental Free Handicap with assignments of 126 pounds were Nyquist and Swipe, who were separated by just a half-length when finishing first and second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but since Nyquist has a Dosage Index of 7.00, he does not count as a dual-qualifier. Swipe, with a Dosage Index of 3.57, is thus the top-ranked dual qualifier. A slight knee injury after the Breeders’ Cup has kept him from racing this year, but he is expected to run in the Lexington Stakes (gr. III) on April 16th at Keeneland, which could potentially launch him back into the Kentucky Derby picture.
The second qualifier is Brody’s Cause, winner of the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on April 9th at Keeneland. Last year, Brody’s Cause won the Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) and finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) to earn a rating of 121 pounds in the Experimental Free Handicap, and his powerful Dosage Index of 1.38 makes him the leader in that category among the dual qualifiers.
Another recent Derby prep winner that makes the cut is Exaggerator, who unleashed a spectacular late run to win the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) on April 9th at Santa Anita. With a 3.40 Dosage Index, Exaggerator falls within the ideal Dosage ranger, and his victories in the Saratoga Special (gr. II) and Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) last year earned him an Experimental Free Handicap assignment of 119 pounds.
Also getting in with a rating of 119 pounds is Mohaymen, who won the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and Remsen Stakes (gr. II) during an unbeaten two-year-old campaign. With a Dosage Index of 3.00, Mohaymen ranks in the middle of both the weight and Dosage categories.
Rounding out the list of dual qualifiers is Mor Spirit, runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby behind Exaggerator. He showed excellent form as a two-year-old, winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (gr. I) and finishing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) to earn an Experimental Free Handicap rating of 117 pounds, and his 1.57 Dosage Index ranks him second in that category behind Brody’s Cause.
Will 2016 be the year that a dual qualifier makes it back to the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs? Given the quality and talent of this year’s candidates, it’s definitely a possibility!
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