The May 13th race card at Belmont Park is an excellent one highlighted by a quartet of graded stakes races, including the $400,000 Man o’ War Stakes (gr. I), which looks like an intrigued race to handicap.
The scratches of Highland Sky, Patterson Cross, and Twilight Eclipse have reduced this 11-furlong turf race to just five starters, but while the remaining contenders look pretty evenly-matched on paper, the yielding turf course could help separate the field.
The morning line favorite is Wake Forest, who won this race last year by three-quarters of a length. Trained by Chad Brown, the son of Sir Percy was a solid stakes competitor last year and won the March 4th Mac Diarmida Stakes (gr. II) in his 2017 debut, but his form on wet courses is questionable. He finished a non-threatening sixth in the 2015 Arlington Million (gr. I) over a yielding course and suffered a trio of defeats on “good” courses last year, though all were solid efforts and a couple were near-misses.
It’s also worth noting that since Wake Forest’s arrival in the U.S., he has posted only one triple-digit BRIS speed figure, that being a 102 when third in last year’s Red Smith Handicap (gr. III). Several
With this in mind, I’m tempted to play against Wake Forest and favor the chances of Sadler’s Joy and Charming Kitten, two sons of Kitten’s Joy that should relish the turf conditions. If there’s one almost certain bet in racing, it’s that the progeny of Kitten’s Joy will relish a wet turf course–some of the stallion’s most prominent foals, including Big Blue Kitten, Stephanie’s Kitten, Bobby’s Kitten, and Divisidero, have won major races on wet courses, and it often seems as though their motto is “the wetter the better.”
As a result, Sadler’s Joy looks like the horse to beat. Trained by Tom Albertrani, this four-year-old colt is lightly race (with just eight starts under his belt), but he’s won four of his last five starts while repeatedly stepping up in class. Two starts back, he lost the William L. McKnight Handicap (gr. III) by a head to Taghleeb, but turned the tables on that rival in the April 1st Pan American Stakes (gr. II), winning by a head while Taghleeb finished 1 1/4 lengths back in fourth.
The 11-furlong distance of the Man o’ War should be just fine for Sadler’s Joy, who won an allowance race at that distance last November, and he’s also 2-for-2 on courses rated “good.” The experienced turf jockey Julien Leparoux has the mount, and with BRIS speed figures of 109 and 103 in his last two starts, Sadler’s Joy looks difficult to beat.
However, Charming Kitten could also be worth a look if he goes off at substantially higher odds than Sadler’s Joy. Like Sadler’s Joy, Charming Kitten has a solid record on wet turf courses, winning the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens Stakes over a “good” course and finishing second in the April 22nd Elkhorn Stakes (gr. II) over a yielding course. That effort was particularly notable since Charming Kitten rallied strongly from off the pace in a race with modest early fractions (six furlongs in 1:15.18) that favored horses racing close to the pace, including the winner.
In two runs at Gulfstream earlier this year, Charming Kitten finished fifth in the William L. McKnight and eighth in the Mac Diarmida, but he was beaten just 1 1/2 lengths and 1 3/4 lengths on those occasions, suggesting that he doesn’t need to improve much to contend against Sadler’s Joy in the Man o’ War. In fact, he posted a 108 BRIS speed figure in the McKnight and a 103 in the Elkhorn, putting him on par with Sadler’s Joy and giving him an edge over Wake Forest.
So how about a “Kitten” exacta box in the Man o’ War–Sadler’s Joy with Charming Kitten? I think both will be major contenders over this yielding turf course, and their odds should make the play worthwhile.
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in the Man o’ War Stakes?
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