Thoughts on the Louisiana Derby Day All-Stakes Pick 4

In the Muniz Memorial Handicap, it’s definitely hard to look past Chocolate Ride, who won this race last year and is 6-for-7 with one runner-up effort over the Fair Grounds turf course. On February 20th, he won the Fair Grounds Handicap (gr. III) over this same course and distance, defeating Roman Approval by three-quarters of a length, and having top jockey Florent Geroux in the saddle is a major plus as well.

My only concern is that as good as Chocolate Ride is, he hasn’t been all that dominant in his last two starts, and he’s facing a very large and talented field this Saturday, including Change of Command, who is expected to serve as a rabbit.

There are a few different horses that I can envision pulling off an upset, including Roman Approval, who was closing the gap against Chocolate Ride in both the Colonel Bradley (gr. III) and the Fair Grounds Handicap. Another contender is Closing Bell, who finished seventh in the Donn Handicap (gr. I) on dirt last time out. He showed good form on turf last year, running second in the Secretariat Stakes (gr. I) and fourth in the Belmont Derby (gr. I), and a small step forward this year could put him in the mix.

But perhaps the most intriguing upset candidate is World Approval, who came off a layoff to win a nine-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park in the unbelievable time of 1:44.98 seconds. Now, the course was fast that day, and World Approval got a great trip setting slow fractions, but he also ran the final three furlongs in a spectacular :33.50 seconds, a sign of exceptional talent. World Approval had shown flashes of talent last year, winning the American Derby (gr. III) and Saranac Stakes (gr. III), and if he can transfer his Gulfstream form to Fair Grounds, I think he can pull off the upset.

In the Fair Grounds Oaks, I like Midnight On Oconee best of the fillies coming out of the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. II). In that race, Midnight On Oconee had a wide trip while chasing a fast pace and led past the eighth pole before tiring to finish second behind the late-running longshot Venus Valentine. In a race that looks almost completely paceless on paper, Midnight On Oconee should be able to secure the early lead and take this field a long way on the front end, but I think Adore might be able to catch her. The daughter of Big Brown has won her last two starts in impressive fashion, including an 8.5-furlong allowance race at Oaklawn on February 21st by four lengths. For that performance, she received a Beyer speed figure of 79, which puts her right in the mix against Midnight On Oconee, Venus Valentine, and Stageplay.

Speaking of Stageplay, she didn’t fire when fifth in the Rachel Alexandra, but she got a very wide trip while trying to make an early move into a fast pace. She could appreciate a slower pace on Saturday and might rebound in a big way; if she does, she could return to winning form at a decent price.

One filly that might be worth playing against is Land Over Sea, who has finished second to the champion Songbird in three of her last four starts. However, the only poor effort of her career came when shipping across the country to contest the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), and as a closer in a race without much early speed, Land Over Sea could find herself compromised trying to close into a slow pace while making her first start at an unfamiliar track. Her chances should certainly be respected, but I think Midnight On Oconee, Adore, and Stageplay might have better chances at victory.

In the Louisiana Derby, I like Gun Runner best of the horses coming out of the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). In the Risen Star, Gun Runner made an early move into a fast pace and still hung on to win in game fashion, and I think he’s ready to take another step forward while making his second start off a layoff. Greenpointcrusader deserves respect off his win in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last year and runner-up effort to Mohaymen in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on January 27th, as does Mo Tom–third in the Risen Star despite some traffic trouble–and the promising allowance winners Battery and Dazzling Gem, who could be in the mix for victory if they take a step forward tomorrow. I also respect the chances of Candy My Boy, who set a fast pace in the Risen Star before tiring to finish fourth. If he gets away with more modest fractions in the Louisiana Derby, he could take this field a long way on the front end, although Gun Runner is still my clear choice to win, and I wouldn’t be afraid to single him.

Some friends of mine on the Bloodhorse.com blog Unlocking Winners were discussing the Fair Grounds Pick 4, and for the purpose of constructing a ticket (or multiple tickets) on a $36 budget, here’s what I came up with: