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You wouldn’t think that a six-horse race would be all that hard to handicap, but the $250,000 True North Stakes (gr. II) on Friday at Belmont Park has drawn such a quality field that finding the winner could be a difficult task.
Of course, Private Zone is a standout based on overall accomplishments. The talented sprinter has compiled an admirable record over the last few years, winning two renewals of the Vosburgh Invitational (gr. I), single editions of the Forego Stakes (gr. I), Cigar Mile (gr. I), Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II), and Belmont Park Sprint Championship (gr. III), and he’s also run second and third two renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I). A true front-runner, he figures to set the pace in the True North and should be difficult to catch.
However, there are a couple of concerns regarding his chances. For one, this race will mark his first start since finishing fifth in the Cigar Mile (gr. I) last year, and he emerged from that race with a few minor issues that prevented him from targeting the Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-I) in March as originally planned. While Private Zone has been training up a storm since then–he was posting bullet workouts back in April at Keeneland and is still doing so at Belmont Park–he is seven years old now, and one has to wonder when he might start to regress a little bit.
In addition, the six-furlong distance of the True North might not be to Private Zone’s advantage. He’s been unstoppable at seven furlongs as of late, winning his last three starts at that distance by a minimum of 3 1/4 lengths, but going six furlongs, his record is less impressive–four wins from 12 starts. Although he’s very fast, he doesn’t really have the :21-and-change opening quarter-mile speed that can be so critical in six-furlong sprints, and his best races have come when allowed to run the opening quarter in more modest fractions like :22 1/5 or :22 2/5.
You won’t find many bigger fans of Private Zone than me, but I do think it could be worth playing against him since he could be a pretty short price on Friday. Therefore, my selection to win is Catalina Red.
I’ve had my eye on this son of Munnings since he won the Inaugural Stakes and Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs as a two-year-old in 2014, so his abbreviated 2015 campaign was a bit of a disappointment. He started the year by finishing fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), his first and only start around two turns, and while he did have one highlight when winning the seven-furlong Jackson Bend Stakes at Gulfstream Park by 2 1/4 lengths, he ended the season with a last-place finish in the Gallant Bob Stakes (gr. III), in which he failed to seriously contend at any point in the race.
But this year, Catalina Red seems to have put it all together. After a pace-tracking victory in the six-furlong Hilton Garden Inn/Hampton Inn and Suites Sprint Stakes to start the season, Catalina Red was transferred to trainer Chad Stewart to Jorge Navarro and sent to Churchill Downs, where top jockey Javier Castellano climbed aboard and guided Catalina Red to a pace-tracking win in the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II). For that effort, Catalina Red earned a career-best Beyer speed figure of 105, on par with the numbers that Private Zone usually earns. An outside draw should allow Castellano to size up the pace scenario on Friday and secure good position for Catalina Red, who stands to benefit if the rail-drawn Holy Boss or the speedy Dads Caps shows speed and engages Private Zone for the early lead. From there, I think Catalina Red can reel in Private Zone in the final furlong to post a mild upset.
Always Sunshine is another logical contender after winning four of his last five starts, including the Maryland Sprint Handicap (gr. III) by 2 1/2 lengths last time out, but while this consistent six-furlong sprinter has a good record and rising Beyer speed figures, he might be slightly better on wet tracks and has yet to face a top-notch front-runner like Private Zone. A win wouldn’t surprise me, but I think he could be a bit vulnerable while stepping up in class.
I’d also like to briefly mention Joking, the longest shot in the field at 20-1. A seven-year-old veteran of 37 starts, he’s run primarily in allowance company throughout his career, but took advantage of a fast pace and a muddy track to rally and win the six-furlong Diablo Stakes at Belmont over a quality field that included Ready for Rye and Green Gratto. He’ll be a big price, but if a hot pace unfolds, I think he can rally to finish in the trifecta and boost the payoffs.
Good luck to all, and enjoy the race!
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